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This response to a conversation about long term care planning comes up once in a while. It most often comes from a reasonably healthy man who cannot imagine his health ever changing. Or, perhaps he just can’t  ever see himself unable to do the things he does so easily now, like driving to Home Depot, mowing the back forty or whatever his favorite activity is.

I find it helpful to have a discussion around two related but different concepts that often get misapplied. These concepts are “risk” and “probability.” The probability of an event, in this case needing extended care services because of declining health, is the possibility of it occurring. National statistics suggest that hardly anyone will ever be placed in a nursing home, about 12% actually.  The risk, however, is the actual loss they would face if such an event did occur. We can estimate that pretty accurately, in fact. In today’s dollars  in the Oklahoma area that will cost about $55,000 per year. For three year’s of care that comes to nearly $170,000. National statistics suggest that 3 years is the average length of stay in a nursing home. Of course, to predict the probability for any one individual is impossible. But we do know the risk that any one person faces in real dollars.

The probability that any one person’s house burns to the ground or is blown away in a wind storm or an Oklahoma tornado is very small, less than one percent I would venture. The actual lost if that would occur is the replacement cost of the dwelling and other buildings that might be on property. A contractor in your area can tell you what new construction costs are per square foot. This is the risk we face if in fact such an event occurred. In the case of property we don’t even consider the probability, we buy insurance to cover the risk.

So why do some people say, “It is just a gamble,” and leave it to that? Fear is one thing that comes to mind. We fear it happening to us. It is a very emotional topic because it leads to so many other issues in our lives if it does indeed occur. So, “out of mind, out of sight”. This is not an honest way to protect our spouses and our families. So, Man Up, men, and do the right thing. Have an honest conversation about what would happen if such an event occurred.